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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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"We've got the AI tailwinds on investment." While the consumer and broader jobs market are slowing, corporate capital expenditure on Artificial Intelligence remains a robust pillar supporting the economy, preventing a recessionary spiral. Long AI infrastructure and investment themes as the primary growth engine in a slowing macro environment. Overinvestment or lack of ROI in AI projects could remove this economic prop. |
CNBC
Hiring trend barely in positive territory, sa...
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Feb 12, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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"The consumer is slower, the jobs market is slower. But there's no signs that things are really kind of spiraling out of control." The economy is undergoing a "step down" in growth rather than a collapse. The slowing data is consistent with structural constraints (labor supply) rather than a demand crisis. Maintain exposure but expect lower growth rates; do not position for a hard landing/crash. If the "slower" trend accelerates into actual job losses rather than just low hiring, the soft landing thesis fails. |
CNBC
Hiring trend barely in positive territory, sa...
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Feb 12, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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"The unemployment rate... has actually ticked lower... [Inflation] is going to be about 3%... You're really going to be looking at the second half of the year before they could see the kinds of easing... maybe once or twice." The market or specific investors (like Einhorn) expecting "a whole bunch" of cuts are misinterpreting the low job growth numbers. The Fed sees this as structural (demographics), not cyclical weakness, and will keep rates steady to fight sticky inflation and tariff effects. Fade aggressive rate cut bets. Yields are unlikely to plummet in the short term. A sudden spike in unemployment or economic "spiraling" would force the Fed's hand. |
CNBC
Hiring trend barely in positive territory, sa...
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